CDA-AGI Webinar Series: Hydrology for Dam Safety – Part 2: Hydrological Analysis

The probable maximum flood (PMF) is widely used to evaluate extreme flood risk and establish inflow design floods (IDF) for spillway design and dam safety. This webinar will provide an overview of PMF estimation and flood frequency analysis, including the use of hydrologic models to transform probable maximum precipitation (PMP) into PMF, and the assessment of uncertainty.

Topics will include the relationship between PMF and rare frequency-based flood events, and the application of PMF analyses in dam design, upgrades, and dam safety reviews. Alberta case studies will be used to demonstrate current methodologies, lessons learned, and recent advances in hydrological analysis for dam safety. The webinar will also introduce practical tools commonly used to check PMF estimates or to develop preliminary estimates for low-consequence dams. New approaches including risk-informed decision-making and the influence of climate variability on extreme flood estimates will be discussed.

November 2026 to May 2027

This is the 6th annual Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation technical webinar series on dam safety practices and technologies. In this series, professionals will present technical information and case studies on emerging technologies and best practices relevant to embankments dams in Alberta and the Prairies.

The Alberta Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation is responsible for implementing dam safety regulation for water dams and is the owner/operator of a large portfolio of water management infrastructure.

Malcolm is a Principal Hydrologist with over 40 years of experience in hydrology and hydrologic engineering with particular emphasis on flood risk management, including flood forecasting, flood warning, and spillway adequacy studies. He has considerable experience in the analysis and synthesis of hydrologic and meteorological data, and in the development and application of hydrologic and hydraulic models for such uses as estimation of spillway design floods, design of flood control works, flood forecasting, flood routing, inundation mapping, and reservoir operation studies. He was a member of a four-person panel of experts that developed the 2004 Guidelines on Extreme Flood Analysis for Alberta Transportation.

Ken is a Principal Hydrotechnical Engineer of Northwest Hydraulic Consultants. He has more than 25 years of professional experience in hydrotechnical engineering with emphasis on hydrology, hydraulics, hydraulic structures, dam safety assessment, and flood management. Ken has led and managed many IDF studies, dam breach analysis and consequence classification assessments, flood frequency analyses, hydrological modelling, spillway assessments, and reservoir operation studies in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Yukon Territory, and Ontario.

Hydrology for Dam Safety - Part 2: Hydrological Analysis

Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation Technical Webinar Series