Estimating release volumes in tailings dam failures is highly uncertain. This paper presents a framework to establish relationships between slope stability failure mechanisms and release volumes. By evaluating various combinations of parameters that could trigger failure, including foundation strength, dam material, tailings composition, and the phreatic surface, critical factors influencing the potential for failure, and associated failure surfaces can be estimated. Two-dimensional (2D) limit equilibrium (LE) stability analyses are used to assess how reasonable variations in these factors may impact the stability of the dam and subsequent predicted release volumes. The framework presented in this paper aims to refine the range of release volume estimates through consideration of site-specific, physically informed failure scenarios.