Name
1B2 - Modeling Historical Dam Failures In Hec-Ras 2d
Date
Monday, October 26, 2026
Time
10:40 AM - 12:00 PM
Description

This paper presents an initial step toward a repository of historical dam-break models for education, professional training, emergency planning, and research applications in dam safety. Three historical North American dam failures — St. Francis Dam (1928), Laurel Run Dam (1977), and Kelly Barnes Dam (1977) — were reconstructed using HECRAS 2D to demonstrate how documented failures can be converted into reusable numerical modelling case studies. Historical records provide estimates of breach parameters and peak discharges, while United States Geological Survey (USGS) digital elevation models and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data were used to define terrain and roughness. Calibration to match observed inundation zones was performed by adjusting peak discharge via breach formation time, supported by sensitivity tests of Manning’s roughness coefficients. The simulations reproduced observed flood extents, peak discharges, and flood-wave propagation characteristics with good agreement across all three case studies. The modeled results for the St. Francis, Laurel Run, and Kelly Barnes dam failures were generally consistent with the documented historical information, demonstrating the capability of HEC-RAS 2D to reconstruct historical dam-break events despite uncertainties associated with breach development, terrain representation, and the limited availability of historical data. The results demonstrate the value of historical dam-break models as reusable case studies rather than as isolated event reconstructions. Empirical breach equations were useful as reference estimates for breach formation time, but the main purpose of the work is to document a modelling workflow that can support future model repositories, loss-of-life studies, risk-based dam safety assessment, emergency planning, and the training of dam safety professionals. 

Location Name
Cima+ Room (501/502))
Mauricio Dziedzic