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Inflow design flood (IDF) determination is a critical component of spillway design and dam safety assessment. For dams classified as “High” to “Extreme” consequence under the current Canadian Dam Association (CDA) Dam Safety Guidelines, the probable maximum flood (PMF) is generally accepted as the IDF or as a reference event for establishing the IDF. Development of the PMF requires site-specific probable maximum precipitation (PMP) as a key input.

This webinar will explain what PMP is, how it is estimated under the current standard practice, and how it is applied in PMF determination. The presentation will feature Alberta projects as case studies, illustrating current PMP estimation practices and highlighting how modern studies compare with legacy estimates. Emerging techniques for PMP estimation and the potential implications of climate change for PMP and PMF assessments will be discussed.

November 2026 to April 2027

This is the 6th annual Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation technical webinar series on dam safety practices and technologies. In this series, professionals will present technical information and case studies on emerging technologies and best practices relevant to embankments dams in Alberta and the Prairies.

Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation is the provincial ministry responsible for implementing dam safety regulation for water dams and is the owner/operator of a large portfolio of water management infrastructure.

Bill Kappel is President and Chief Meteorologist of Applied Weather Associates (AWA). Bill has been the project manager and technical lead for hundreds of PMP studies world-wide since joining AWA over 20 years ago. This includes studies covering many locations within Canada. He has also led numerous climate change analyses, precipitation frequency analyses, snow water equivalent analyses, forensic meteorology cases, and the development of meteorological input parameters for use in hydrologic model calibration/validation, reservoir inflow management/operations, and rain-on-snow calculations.

Ken is a Principal Hydrotechnical Engineer of Northwest Hydraulic Consultants. He has more than 25 years of professional experience in hydrotechnical engineering with emphasis on hydrology, hydraulics, hydraulic structures, dam safety assessment, and flood management. Ken has led and managed many IDF studies, dam breach analysis and consequence classification assessments, flood frequency analyses, hydrological modelling, spillway assessments, and reservoir operation studies in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Yukon Territory, and Ontario.

Hydrology for Dam Safety - Part 1: Probable Maximum Precipitation

Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation Technical Webinar Series